Well that's about the end of 2011 and what a roller coaster it has been. The much heralded green shoots of economic recovery seem to be withering in the vines and probably owe more to the strategic placements of decimal points rather than anything resembling economic growth. Anyone who considers this out of place in a Bedlington blog just look around at the 'for sale' boards, even the ones which have been changed into 'to let' signs, their almost static presence is apparent to anyone walking around with their eyes open! The Nationwide's recent forecast of more house price drops next year will be of little comfort to anyone in Bedlington stuck in this particular morass. Also the recent bad news of more probable local job losses needs careful consideration. The likes of the Alcan jobs, as well as the ones lost at NCC, may well be able to be recovered statistically but in all probability the replacements will not deliver the same disposable incomes to those which are lost. Replacing semi and skilled well-paid jobs with ones stocking shelves at supermarkets is not the way to engender knock on economic activity, in fact quite the opposite.

Never mind we keep saving the financial sector decreed as 'too big to fail'. Says who exactly? If we look at the market pronouncement on these businesses over the last 12 months we can see a pattern emerging. Share price performance of the biggest over the last year, BofA: -60.38%,
Citi:-4.76%, Goldman Sachs: -46.41%, JPMorgan: -23.03%, Morgan Stanley: -45.24%, RBS: -50%,
Barclays: -34.32%, Lloyds: -63.02%, UBS: -29.33%, Deutsche Bank: -28,55%, Crédit Agricole: -56.04%,
BNP Paribas: -37.67% and Société Générale: -59.57%. It seems even the attempted manipulation by the Sage of Omaha proved ineffectual this time given the Bank of America pricing! So whilst the peers in this game effectively back out the taxpayers have stepped in to provide liquidity and a back stop for all the bets taken with toxic asset collateral. Seems to me perfectly clear the cornerstone of capitalism is only operating by socialist intervention, quite a dichotomy for proponents of each philosophy!

Looking a little further at our closest neighbours we see supposedly democratic countries now with Troika imposed unelected heads of state? That would seem to be a damming indictment on the quality of political EU players as none would seem to have the where-with-all to steer their own countries through the various storms which have erupted. We have seen Captain Scarlet's SPV replaced with GI Joe's bazooka, Jean Claude replaced with Mario (probably better if they went the whole hog and brought in the Super Mario Bros!), and Herman Van Rompuy looking like a rabbit trapped in the headlights under the constant haranguing of Daniel Hannan and Nigel Farage. We even hear about the possibility of free repatriation for our countrymen who might be trapped behind the curtains of a country expelled from the Eurozone or which has to default. I hope the UK Government have shopped around and bought the cheapest charters the costs of using credit cards for flights being what is still is!

All of the above is as nothing of course because we have Celebrity Big Brother to look forward to soon. The whole celebrity culture thing is reminiscent of something, now what was it..............

I do have one forecast for this coming year and I have no doubt it will come true. Like the run up to the Millennium when Nostradamus was one of the most searched names on Google this next year the Mayan Long Count Calendar will be. Its seemingly prophetic forecast of Armageddon starting on the winter solstice 2012 will be akin to the destructive powers of that seemingly unstoppable insect, the Millennium Bug. If we take a bit of time and actually look into what was actually forecast almost 2000 years ago we see it's a beginning not just an end. Now if that beginning were to include debt forgiveness, debt write downs, bond haircuts and a refocusing on society in general instead of protecting the privileges of a few that might just be the new start we need.

With tenancies being passed around quicker than a charitable collection plate at Westminster we now see some of our local hostelries being closed, possibly for good. Nearly 1300 pubs closed last year and given the current economic situation and the financial models imposed by the big tenancy operators with their beer tie contracts it's not hard to see which way the wind is blowing. Ever increasing costs and draconian regulations at a time of a reduction in disposable incomes and market pressure from cheaper product available at supermarkets makes running these businesses seem like a no brainer. Some will buck the trend but even these will have to run faster to stand still.

As we see even 'social clubs' are not immune from this pressure and the writing was probably on the wall once one of the big boys took over The Fed Brewery. With a history of buying up the opposition and then closing them down getting access to 'cheap' beer becomes impossible as large scale production is held in fewer and fewer hands and cheap beer was always a fundamental attraction for club goers. Can the boards of directors of these clubs, or the committee, compete with their namesakes sitting in head offices in London, spending more on sharp suited business consultants than their northern counterparts can ever imagine? There is a two letter answer to that!

We have seen one game changer in this market enter Bedlington; one who uses price to gain market share and no one can question the value for money on offer at the Red Lion, so yet another marketplace change to be considered.

There is of course another 'game changer' about to enter the Town, if they ever do get on with their proposed redevelopment, and one which has the potential to radically alter the viability of a much wider range of smaller businesses in the Town. Interesting to see one of the reasons stated for the demise of Blacks Leisure is lack of footfall on high streets these days and as their outlets are predominately located on high streets..........

As I have warned several times the oft repeated quotes from our panjandrum political leaders saying the UK will not be bailing out the Euro now resembles a tissue of mendacity! Not only have we already seen around £12 billion go into propping up Eurozone countries we now have the very real prospect of throwing almost £26 billion into an IMF fund which is directly bailing out the Eurozone. This would make the UK contribution second only to Germany and of equal size to France, and this from a country French officials have just been telling everyone is bust! This figure represents an amount greater than the self-imposed austerity cuts in the UK and we really do have to wonder what planet that makes sense on?
The real problem I have is this will inevitably become a fund which once endorsed and filled will probably become so rapacious because of what it is trying to fulfil we could very well end up throwing more and more money into it so as not to accept losses. As it is the job losses we have already seen in the UK can now easily be ascribed to saving a foreign currency!
For some reason the very institutions at the centre of the whole problem are being given 'get out of jail free cards' as their debts are socialised yet we still see huge bonuses being paid for what in reality are very nefarious financial activities. It's a pity the mantra of 'too big to fail' wasn't ascribed to our mining, steel, and shipbuilding industries, to name a few, we might still have been a producer country instead of one reliant on 'white van man' running up and down the country delivering goods made overseas!
I am going to invest in that 1970's high fashion accessory, a nuclear bunker, and maybe Bedlington shouldn't be pushing for a sports/leisure centre but rather open up the old pit workings to provide a warren of safety as we contemplate our financial Troglodytic future.

Cameron's recent use of a supposed veto has resulted in many column inches of print and if readers agree or not probably depends on their European stance with regard to the UK. It's probably worth looking at what was on the table because it may be some time before anything is actually written down for EU members to sign up to. Shying away from implementing a completely new Treaty, which would have sparked a wave of referenda in several EU countries, what was suggested was really an extension to the Lisbon Treaty. Who can forget Cameron's absolute call for a referendum when Brown signed us up to that! It is therefore hardly surprising DC walked away and preferred to ingratiate himself with his Eurosceptic backbenchers, at least that way he still had some friends! What this represents for the UK, momentous.... possibly, predictable.... definitely and it would have been the main topic of discussion in the meetings Dave had with Merkle and Sarkozy prior to the summit. The UK relationship with the EU is now irrevocably changed but then the EU itself is about to become a very changed entity so no one can possibly know what has been lost or gained!

Several of the topics now seemingly contained in this possible agreement are worthy of further consideration, not least the harmonisation of tax, notable corporation tax. The French have complained incessantly about the Irish level of this tax but in her present economic woes should Ireland increase this tax, could Ireland increase this tax, probably not. Looks likely there will be an Irish opt out as the price for her agreement or exactly what Dave said he asked for to protect the City but was refused. Hmm the waters are becoming less than clear, jumped ship or pushed overboard?

There is also the small matter of the ECB becoming continental lender of last resort something it isn't legally entitled to be. Seems the way to get around this is for it to 'take over' the various stability funds, or 'bazookas, and provide them with funding allowing them to underwrite debt. It also allows leverage on these funds, the very thing which has got us into the mire in the first place! If we private citizens did this the probability is that the boys in blue would be feeling collars and levying charges of money laundering! This is very probably at the insistence of the Fed who if gossip is to be believed had to cover a dollar position of a European financial institution, probably a French bank, some weeks ago. Looks like the Fed has agreed to cover all these EU positions now, as long as the ECB cranks up its money printing operations, for fear of one becoming the first domino to fall.

As an aftershock we now have the whole Coalition relationship to consider with the two central figures being diametrically opposed on the EU question. Having read not so long ago that they were peas in a pod on the European question what has emerged is something quite at odds with that statement. It certainly relegates the deputy PM into irrelevance when the bigger national questions are debated.

Let's not be in the dark about this whole saga, it's a banking and financial problem and one which was always on the cards once the brakes were taken off stuff like re-hypothecation and fractional reserve lending. The problem is that these cyberspace losses and esoteric securities have been socialised by governments and their taxpayers and we now have to throw real money into a black hole created by cyber-betting. Pity the same reverence wasn't given to our coal, shipbuilding, iron and steel industries, but then they weren't too big to fail or located in London!

The Christmas tree standing in the middle of the Market Place in Bedlington has just been subjected to a senseless act of vandalism. Whilst walking up the street last week, a group of our finest young ladies were seen by a couple to be trying to rip off the lighting strings. After remonstrating with these young ladies and asking why they were behaving in such a mindless way the couple reported their encounter so an inspection of the damage could be carried out. This has now been done and several strings have been damaged with the result that none of the lights in those strings work now. Great start to the festive period!
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The point is that these lights along with the tree and other displays have all been bought by the parish ratepayers of West Bedlington who now face a possible extra cost for damages. That will undoubtedly include the parents of the very people who have caused the damage, as well as the rest of us of course! Hopefully the CCTV cameras in the Market Place will have caught the people involved and restitution can be sought once the culprits have been identified!

This beckons a further question concerning public Xmas lighting in general. Having just read a report which outlines the facts that in an age and an area where energy impoverishment is a real issue, agreements on carbon neutrality and energy price inflation are all factors can we really justify such displays of extravagant use of energy? No doubt the first council who takes this argument to its logical conclusion will be accused of unnecessary Dickensian austerity!
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The report also mentioned the fact that whilst our rural areas in the North and West could well be in darkness soon the prevalence of criminality in the South East of the county could well be a reason why the lights stay on here. Maybe I should rejig the first two paragraphs..................

London will have its new leisure and sporting centres and even though the people of Bedlington don't expect anything as grand as that, a gesture will be nice in an age where we, as a country, are hosting an Olympic Games.

It is beginning to look like all the pressure is starting to pay off as leisure provision in Bedlington, or the lack of it to be more exact, was debated at the South East Northumberland Area Meeting last night (16/11/2011). Members seemed to accept the fact that Bedlington has been overlooked for far too long, 30 years was mentioned and this blogger would say 40+ but let's not squabble over a decade or two! It was a little galling to hear some members say that when in fact they have been responsible for that neglect, but hey that's politics and a different blog!

Using a Bedlington Forum commissioned feasibility study done by KKP in 2010 as a base, a NCC sponsored meeting took place with interested parties which was acknowledged by all as being very positive. There is now an NCC initiative looking into this subject with most of the interested potential users being represented. The possible High School development at Bedlington Station was singled out as a potential site for community involvement in sports by the NCC executive member for Customer Relations and Culture, Neil Bradbury. Don't know how popular that might be with the Bedlington community because when it was mentioned at a Forum meeting as a possible solution there was very little support for such a move, the call for a stand-alone centre being unequivocal!

One other possible site was also mentioned, Gallagher Park, and there are already moves afoot by the Friends of Gallagher Park to build on their recent success of the BMX track. They asked the Bedlingtonshire Development Trust to carry out a public consultation and assess need and suggestions. The Trust immediately targeted all of the local schools and other local organisations as well as asking members of the public to fill in questionnaires. The main reason for targeting the schools, as the Trust pointed out, is that the school kids will be the principle users of anything which might be constructed over the years to come and they should have a large say in what type of development is delivered there. With over 3500 replies to date and more coming in daily the Trust is busy collating all the information. To date there are 43 separate and individual suggestions and no prize for guessing what suggestion has come out top! FoGP and the Development Trust are keen to state that they are looking for the most viable and sustainable suggestions to take forward.

Bedlington might have waited a long time for something like this and it has to be accepted that it will be a long and difficult journey but with the right will and resolve there is no reason why our children shouldn't be able to use a modern and innovative facility on their doorstep, we have paid enough in for others over the years!

Looking a bit closer at this new EU deal which has been heralded by most all the mainstream media as a 'Euro Saviour' it would seem not only are the exact details missing so is any realistic probability of its success!
The increased firepower needed is to be made up of extra contributions, by whom, the countries needing the bailouts? The BRICs have been mentioned but given the recent history of one European fiscal crisis after another I wonder if anyone in their right mind will jump in and provide the huge amount of cash needed. Mr Osborne emerged saying the UK would not be contributing, really, what about our 'aid' to our closest euro neighbour and also the fact that the UK makes up a percentage of any IMF fund. Germany has now capped its losses in the EFSF effectively releasing them of being guarantor of last resort, just what an investor will be looking for, never mind the 20% of guarantee attached to any future losses even after swallowing a 50% loss????? Can this be made any less attractive? Oh yes it can, let's get some leverage on the loans! This is akin to anyone asking the bank for 10K to buy a car and the bank saying don't just take 10K take 50K and buy 2 and have a holiday. At some point in time we arrive at payback time and putting that off is what has got us in the mire in the first place! We can always pay it off with a new credit card of course except that has an ever increasing rate of APR!

Underlying a Greek rescue is the 50% haircut banks and bondholders will be asked to take. Accepted by banking spokespersons (IIF) yet still needing ratification by the banks themselves, who as we all know are famously magnanimous, this deal will immediately call into question if not accelerate the processing of the CDS they hold. The question which needs to be asked is why have they bought 'insurance' only to ignore it and accept a 50% write-down? The plan is to half Greek debt by gearing up the loan fund? This is string theory for quantum fiscal mechanics! If anyone thinks Greece will be in a good position with a debt to GDP ratio of 120%, as this plan expects in 2020, then they need to apply to be an EU Commissioner! Greece is already slipping on present austerity commitments and state asset sales, ramping up the expectations to insurmountable heights can only have one conclusion!
Looking at the French question, Sarko looks to have lost his fight to get French banks recapitalised by anyone or anything other than France herself. He might be grinning like a cat that swallowed the cream but reality in this case will be like a sledgehammer! When France does have to do its own housekeeping it must ultimately call into question the French AAA rating because the only way they can achieve that will be to sell sovereign assets! Course he might win the Chinese over with his Gallic charm, I would just wonder what will have to be given away to get them to the table in the first place, possibly the next IMF headship?
Berlusconi might think he too could look with a degree of surety towards another election but even if the EFSF bazooka, or the SIV as will be created now, was capitalised up to the hilt for all Euro countries in trouble, Italy would need the whole lot for itself. Madness!
The whole initiative looks to be a way of extending the crisis to get over impending elections and not just those within Europe! The politicos and their acolytes will now be deployed in Summit after Summit saying they are working on the final, final, final details while the rest of us mere mortals look on in total disbelief.

The Bedlingtonshire Development Trust have produced a YouTube video which they hope goes viral. Aimed at promoting themselves and the Town the video uses the recent Bedlington Heritage Guide and has people standing in front of world renowned landmarks with a copy. They have people taking part in Italy to Egypt, from New York to Paris, from Switzerland to South America, from Japan to Germany and many other destinations in between.

A spokesperson for the Trust said, ''We hope everyone appreciates the fun element in this but there is a serious message as well. This is about the first time we have had anything positive to promote our Town with and we are going to use it! ''

Asked if he thought local Bedlington landmarks could compete with the likes of what is on the video the chair of the Trust said, ''Well at least ours are built straight, not like that one in Pisa, how they got that through building regs I don't know!''

The Trust is not only using YouTube they have set up a Facebook page as well and hope to get more people involved with the project. ''We need to get our youngsters involved if we hope to see any real improvements here and if their preferred medium is Facebook and YouTube then that's places we have to target.''

One thing is for sure, Bedlington isn't hiding its light under a bush anymore! Seems it's today Northumberland tomorrow the world!

To view the video......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqecpk6LpFk

The Bedlingtonshire Development Trust has held their first computer training session working with UK Online. These free courses are for Bedlington residents who need a bit of help and advice to get the best value out of computers with particular relevance to the Internet. Seniors and the unemployed are the main targeted groups but the courses are open to anyone who wants them. It is hoped to run them every Monday 5.00pm- 8.00pm at the Salvation Army in Bedlington and include modules on opening e-mail accounts, internet safety and online searches.
The training is being delivered by volunteers within an informal atmosphere so no 'techy talk' and learners can progress at their own speed. The Trust hopes to deliver additional training once interests have been identified by the learners themselves.

Anyone wanting more information or to enrol on a short course:
Phone 0797 008 5060.
Or e-mail.... bdt@bedlington.co.uk

Last Saturday, 25th September, Bedlington's latest addition to community support, Leading Link, opened the doors to its new home, The Lodge. This is the new building just inside the gates to the St Benet Biscop's school in Bedlington. After taking 2 years to gather the necessary backing and finances everyone was delighted with the end result.
Local MP Ian Lavery cut the tape and officially opened the building. He acknowledged how welcome the arrival of Leading Link is to the people of Bedlington and also urged the community to support the not-for-profit business and make use of the building's facilities.

A full afternoon of activities followed with taster classes in Zumba and 'Just Jhoom', toddler sessions, proggy mat sessions, 'Knit & Knatter' sessions, a new breakfast cafe, sponsored bike ride in partnership with WatBike, art and woodcraft sessions, a mobile skate park, children's themed parties, acoustic music evening and table top sales to mention just a few!

The whole day was run by the Youth Ambassadors, a 50 strong group of trained young people who volunteer their skills and time to Leading Link.
Leading Link's main focus will be in youth and adult involvement and leadership. They will be offering an adult volunteer course to run alongside the Youth Ambassadors which will include training on health and safety, first aid and skills training including art, drama, film and radio, cooking and sport starting this November.

Looks like Leading Link will be hitting the ground sprinting never mind running.

Congratulations all round!